Michigan: Precinct Leaders for Ron Paul DOUBLE the Vote
Here is what I have so far. Please help me improve this summary by submitting your numbers. (Use the contact form or email Paulunteer@gmail.com.)
Michigan
Ron Paul - 6.27%
Michigan precincts known to have Precinct Leaders:
#74 - 12%
#69 - 11%
#71 - 11%
#2 Royal Oak - 13%
#4 Royal Oak - 13%
#6 Royal Oak - 13%
#1 North Branch Twp., Lapeer County - 21%
#1 Eastpointe - 14%
#4 Ypsilanti, Washtenaw - 19%
#2 Ypsilanti, Washtenaw - 16%
If you were in Michigan please let me know:
A) Your precinct(s)
B) Each precinct’s % for Paul
If you only know your precinct # please let me know what it was and I will try to find the %.
(Original idea courtesy of this thread.)
*Update: I know that this is not a scientific study and that it would be nearly impossible to prove causation. My objective is not to prove causation but simply to collect data which I believe will point out very distinctly the benefit of having Precinct Leaders. Please continue to submit data.
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I have to admit I’m skeptical about there being any real correlation in this data (which it seems you agree is too sparse to draw any conclusions).
Though I live in Indiana, I worked as a county coordinator for the campaign in Michigan and kept abreast of the campaign there pretty well. The new feature on ronpaul2008.com allowing people to sign up as precinct leaders was only added literally days before the vote in Michigan. Chances are that when those precinct leaders that you list signed up was not immediately when the function became available. So I have my doubts that there was time for them to make a huge difference in those precincts. I think the higher percentage of RP votes in those places is more likely due to factors that had been going on since well before the precinct leader could have signed up. Either there had already been ongoing effective campaign efforts in those areas, or they were areas that leaned more naturally toward RP than others due to demographic factors.
My guess is that any correlation that might exist probably works in the other direction. Precincts with high RP votes are precincts where there existed high RP support for awhile and an active presence of RP grassroots campaigning. It is from these places of mature and active RP grassroots campaign groups that the people most likely to sign up as precinct leaders will come.
I’m considering becoming a Ron Paul precinct leader myself… This leads me to think it’s a helluva good idea.
One big thing that is bothering me is how Paul’s “actual” results keep ending up significantly lower than his exit poll #s… in Michigan it’s 8% vs 6%…
Responding to Eric’s comment. While the precinct system at RonPaul2008 was not up until right before the Michigan primary, there was already action happening on the precinct level, at least where I in Nashville TN. We already had a “supervoter” list and some people were leaving door hangers. That is still “precinct captain” action even if it wasn’t yet “official”. While I don’t live in Michigan I suspect something similar happened there.
[…] from the field show what a dramatic difference Precinct Leaders make — take a look at the numbers compiled by The Paulunteer blog, showing a doubling or even tripling of the Ron Paul vote in areas with Precinct Leaders: Michigan […]
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Hello!Thank you, and everyone who contributed to the creation of this website.
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At one site I have read almost the same selection of information, but thanks anyway.
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